Trainee reporter Liu Yucheng
The central bank issued a notice yesterday saying that it will not conduct open market operations. In fact, this is the third consecutive suspension of related fund-raising operations. The central bank also pointed out in the announcement that the current liquidity of the banking system is at a relatively high level. The reporter noted that since June 21, the central bank has achieved a net withdrawal of funds for five consecutive trading days, amounting to 40 billion, 80 billion, 50 billion, 50 billion and 10 billion yuan respectively, indicating that the current liquidity is relatively abundant.
In general years, June is often the most fluid moment. In June of this year, affected by factors such as MPA (macro-prudential assessment) assessment, fiscal tax payment, and Fed rate hike expectations, market liquidity is also facing considerable pressure. Last week, the central bank realized a net return of 60 billion yuan. The recent open market operation funds have achieved a net return, which indirectly indicates that liquidity tension has been improved. It can be seen that the net market launch in the previous period has largely eased the liquidity pressure in June, and the time when the funds are tight at the end of the season has passed.
In terms of open market operations, the central bank resumed the 28-day reverse repurchase operation in June, and continuously adjusted the reverse repurchase period and volume to provide liquidity for the inter-season funds. At the same time, the MLF (Medium Loan Facilitation) operation in early June also injected a lot of liquidity into the market, alleviating the panic in the market. On the basis that the previous volume was fully absorbed by the market, the funds were unexpectedly loose in June.
The Fed raised interest rates, the market expected and digested in advance, so the market reaction was relatively calm. At the same time, the central bank has not raised the operating rate of the open market, and positive policy signals have further eased market liquidity concerns. The CBRC's “3, 3, 4†self-examination report can postpone the submission of the news, which also makes the market risk sentiment better. In the early stage, financial institutions have prepared a capital position to deal with the MPA exam. With the tax node in the past, the disturbance factor of the fund face gradually disappeared at the end of the half year, and the liquidity in the last week of June was generally sufficient.
Despite the net return of open market operations in recent days, the capital side is still showing a steady and warm trend, and the price of key market items in the money market is relatively stable compared with the previous weeks. In the middle and late June, the issuance of the bond primary market was improved, and the bidding ratio of interest rate bonds was mostly more than 3 times, indicating that the market demand was restored and the allocation force gradually entered the market; the bond secondary market yield was generally down, on June 20, the Ministry of Finance The one-year government bond launched a 1.2 billion yuan purchase-and-market operation, repairing the interest rate curve that was previously distorted by the sharp rise in short-term yields. At the same time, the yield of policy-based financial bonds represented by the National Debt is going down, and the magnitude is even greater. On the whole, the short-end rate of return is more down, and the narrowing of the spread makes the curve upside down.
Last week, the heads of the “three-party and three-members†voiced at the Lujiazui Financial Forum, stating that the financial market should be opposed to high leverage and financial governance while opening up, and should not stop financial reform and innovation because of risks; Slowing down is a market misunderstanding. It can be seen that if the financial rectification continues to increase after the passing of the wind in June, the bond market may still face downside risks. The continued return of inter-season funds in the open market in June will also exert certain pressure on liquidity in July.
(Editor: Cui Chen HX015)
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