2018-05-16
Author weex trades together
The euro has been unexpectedly frequent in recent days. The original Italian cabinet was close to success, avoiding the risk of the second election. I know that halfway through the news that the European Central Bank is exempt from debt, the euro fell again on Wednesday (May 16). 1.1800 mark, refreshing the lowest level in the past six months.
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At the same time, the bond yield spread between the United States and Germany continues to widen, which is not a good signal for the euro. US President Trump has also surprised Europe in the handling of the Iranian issue, and the rise in oil prices may further push up the dollar. Investors should pay more attention to the follow-up situation and the economic data of the euro zone.
The Italian cabinet is about to succeed, but...
A number of media quoted a draft agreement obtained by the Huffington Post on Tuesday, showing that the five-star movement and the far-right party coalition party of the Italian populist party, which is co-organizing the cabinet, are considering exempting the ECB from buying Italian bonds of QE. The EU is required to reduce its budgetary contributions to Italy.
A spokesperson for the economic affairs of the Northern Alliance of Italy responded to media reports that the official draft of the government project never included the requirement of the European Central Bank to exempt the 250 billion euros of Italian government bonds purchased in QE. The five-star movement and the Northern Alliance’s proposal are that the Italian government bonds bought by the European Central Bank do not count toward the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact, which states that “public debt accounts for less than 60% of GDPâ€.
The incident caused an uproar, and the Italian-German 10-year bond yield rose to 147 basis points, the most in Italy's March 4 election. Italy's FTSE MIB index fell more than 2.5%, and is expected to hit its biggest one-day drop since January 2017. The Italian banking stock index fell to 3.7%. Italian banks Banco BPM, Credito Valtellinese shares automatically suspended trading after falling to 5%.
The euro hit its lowest level since December 15 last year:
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European Commission President Juncker said that Italy is very important to the EU and will not comment on the Italian cabinet negotiations.
On the issue of the cabinet, Italian five-star sports party member Toninelli said that the government agreement may be announced tomorrow. The Five Star Movement Party and the Northern Alliance still have to agree on three issues. The issue of debt cancellation was discussed in the negotiations.
Di Maio, the head of the Italian Five-Star Movement Party, said that the Five Star Movement Party and the Northern Alliance are making final checks on the cabinet formation plan, after which he and the Northern Alliance leader Salvini will focus on solving the remaining problems.
Salvini, leader of the Northern Alliance of Italy, said that he is cooperating in a constructive manner with Di Maio, the leader of the five-star sports party. The Northern Alliance will not insist on winning the post of prime minister. The more threats I face, the more I decide to form a government. I have not been threatened by the rise in the yield of government bonds. We have made many good progress in forming a coalition government. We know that the new government will be attacked a lot. The government's cabinet plan can be completed today, after which we will consider nominations from government members.
Officials of the Northern Alliance of Italy said that the coalition agreement between the Northern Alliance and the Five Star Movement Party has been completed 90%.
Trump's hidden caution machine: Europe and America accidentally turned face?
The sudden turn of US President Trump in the ZTE incident not only caused many American business leaders to worry about their quick agreement with China, but also the Iranian issue, the Europeans began to wonder, Trump launched the real goal of the trade war, in the end Is China or Europe?
MishTalk columnist Mike Shedlock said:
Trump’s endless trade scans and sanctions have clear goals? Consider this possibility: his goal is the EU, not China.
Sanctions to Iran will exacerbate EU guilt and cause direct harm to nearly 5,000 German companies. According to "Spiegel Online", the combination of third-party sanctions and US tax law amendments has led to a large number of German companies turning their business to the United States, driven by significant interests. In the past three days, the Germans have gradually understood Trump’s sanctions against Iran, which is actually a sanction against Europe, especially for Germany.
European Council President Tusk said today that Europe will take its guns in response to US trade issues; trade negotiations with the United States must return to reality, unity is our main force; hope to obtain permanent tariff exemption from the United States . Europe should thank Trump because he has eliminated our fantasies; Trump helps European unity.
It should be noted that the US-German two-year bond yield spread has widened to 313 basis points, a 29-year high, which is not a good phenomenon for the euro, as the continued spread will often mean that the euro may face Further pressure, but from the speed of the euro's decline and the rate of increase in bond spreads, does not rule out the possibility of the euro temporarily stop falling.
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The Fed seems to be adding fuel, because if the Iranian problem causes oil prices to rise further and push up inflation, then the Fed has the possibility of raising interest rates four times this year, and the current market is expected to be three times.
Bostic (with voting rights), the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said that he will raise interest rates by 2-4 times this year. Fiscal stimulus measures mean that monetary policy can be normalized more quickly. After the extra fiscal stimulus, I now support the rate hike three times this year. The Fed should return to the neutral interest rate level, but it should not be too fast.
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Other things
Trade Friction
Zhang Xiangchen, Ambassador of China's Permanent Mission to the WTO, said that many issues between China and the United States are complex. It is a long-term task to resolve each other's trade concerns through communication and negotiation. In the short term, I also believe that China and the United States have enough wisdom to find solutions to the urgent problems in bilateral economic and trade relations. As a big country, China’s policy toolbox will of course have “eighteen weaponsâ€, but it will never be used easily. Use, use, and use, depending on the development of the situation, but only one purpose, to restore normal trade order, "stop the martial arts."
The EU Agriculture Commissioner said that he has expressed to the United States that the US-China trade friction may cause joint damage to the EU. The EU is seeking clarification from China on food safety certification issues.
Hong Kong
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to launch MSCI Asia on June 11 (excluding Japan Index Futures, the first exchange in Asia to trade products related to the index.
The Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar hit a 7.85 weak party exchange guarantee level.
North Korea issue
On the 16th, Xi Jinping met in Beijing with a friendly delegation of the Workers' Party of Korea led by Park Tae-sung, the vice chairman of the Korean Workers' Party. Xi Jinping said that he supports improving North-South relations, promoting dialogue between the DPRK and the United States, achieving denuclearization of the peninsula, and supporting North Korea in developing its economy and improving people's livelihood.
The Korean National Security Council will discuss the North Korean issue tomorrow.
White House spokesman Sanders said he still hopes to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and prepare for difficult negotiations.
Crude oil market
European Commission President Juncker said that the EU is closely linked to the multilateral system. It is important to maintain peace in Iran’s nuclear agreement. Ending the Iranian nuclear agreement will pose a major threat to security. It is not good to announce in advance what actions EU leaders will take on the Iran issue.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that although the Iranian nuclear deal is not perfect, Iran has always insisted on fulfilling it. Transatlantic 600558, the partnership mechanism must be able to resolve differences of opinion similar to the Iranian nuclear agreement. The EU believes that if it continues to support the Iranian nuclear agreement, the EU and Iran will be able to communicate in a better posture. Both Germany and the EU must play a more powerful role in the Syrian issue.
OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo said that the OPEC and non-OPEC countries' oil production cuts in April were 149%, a record high.
Morgan Stanley said it expects WTI prices to be $71/barrel in the fourth quarter of 2018 and $73/barrel in 2019. In the fourth quarter, oil is expected to be raised from US$72.50/barrel to US$77.50/barrel, and is expected to reach US$90/barrel by 2020.
According to the IEA, global crude oil supply increased by 1.78 million barrels per day to 98 million barrels per day in April, driven by non-OPEC supply growth. It is estimated that the oil demand for OPEC will average 32.25 million barrels per day for the remainder of 2018. Global refining capacity is expected to hit a record high of 83 million barrels per day from July to August, but will not meet all refinery demand.
According to the IEA monthly report, due to the rise in oil prices, the increase in global oil demand in 2018 is estimated to be 1.4 million barrels per day, which was previously expected to be 1.5 million barrels per day. The increase in supply of non-OPEC countries in 2018 is expected to increase to 1.87 million barrels per day, which was previously expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day. OECD stocks fell to 1 million barrels below the five-year average in March, down 26.8 million barrels to 2.819 billion barrels. It is still too early to assess the impact of US sanctions on Iran on its crude oil supply. The market dynamics will be closely monitored and prepared to take the necessary actions to ensure a good market supply.
Weber, leader of the People's Party of the European Parliament, said that Europe must remain united in maintaining the Iranian nuclear deal.
gold
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 13F report showed that hedge fund Paulson & CO. reduced its SPDR Gold Trust position to 4.3 million shares in the first quarter (previous quarter holdings of 4.36 million shares). In contrast, “financial giants†Soros and Caxton Corp avoided buying gold assets.
Brexit
British Prime Minister Teresa May said that she was disappointed that the Scottish Parliament did not agree to the Brexit bill.
The European Central Bank hinted that it will provide flexibility for euro zone banks after the Brexit.
Emerging Markets
The Turkish lira hit a record low of 4.5 lira against the dollar, and this year has accumulated a total depreciation of more than 15%. Turkey's 10-year bond yields rose 23 basis points, hitting a record high of 14.94%. Earlier, the Turkish central bank said it would take the necessary measures to deal with the depreciation of the lira.
It is reported that the meeting between Turkish President Erdogan and Turkish Central Bank President Cetinkaya has nothing to do with the lira.
Today's data
US industrial output in April was 0.7%, expected 0.6%, and the previous value was revised from 0.5% to 0.7%. US manufacturing output in April was 0.5%, expected 0.5%, and the previous value was 0.1%. US equipment utilization rate was 78% in April, with an expected 78.4%. The previous value was revised from 78% to 77.6%.
In the United States, there were 1.352 million building permits in April, with an expected 1.35 million households. The previous value was revised from 1.354 million to 1.377 million. US construction permits in April were -1.8%, expected -2.1%, and the previous value was revised from 2.5% to 4.1%.
In the United States, 1.287 million new homes were opened in April, with an expected 1.31 million households. The previous value was revised from 1.319 million to 1.363 million. US housing starts in April were -3.7%, expected -0.7%, and the previous value was revised from 1.9% to 3.6%.
Canada's manufacturing shipments in March were 1.4%, expected 0.9%, and the previous value was 1.9%.
The US MBA mortgage application activity index for the week of May 11 was -2.7% on a week-on-week basis, with a previous value of -0.4%.
The Eurozone reconciled CPI in April to a final value of 1.2%, expected 1.2%, and an initial value of 1.3%. The euro zone's core reconciliation in April was 0.7% year-on-year, with an expected 0.7% and an initial value of 0.7%. In the Eurozone, the CPI was adjusted by 0.3% in April, 0.3% expected, and the previous value was 1%.
Italy's industrial orders in March were 2.6% year-on-year, and the previous value was revised from 3.4% to 2.8%. Italy's industrial orders in March were 0.5%, and the previous value was revised from -0.6% to -0.8%.
Italy's industrial sales in March was 3.6% year-on-year, and the previous value was revised from 3.4% to 2.7%. Italy's industrial sales in March was 0.8% from the previous month, with a previous value of 0.5%.
Germany's April CPI is 1.6% year-on-year, with an expected 1.6% and an initial value of 1.6%. Germany's April CPI is 0% lower than the final value, expected 0%, initial value 0%. Germany reconciled CPI in April with a final value of 1.4%, expected 1.4%, and an initial value of 1.4%. In Germany, the CPI was adjusted to a final value of -0.1% in April, expected to be -0.1%, and the initial value was -0.1%.
Japan's industrial output in March was 1.4% lower than the final value, with an initial value of 1.2%. Japan's industrial output in March was 2.4% year-on-year, with an initial value of 2.2%.
Japan's March equipment utilization index was 0.5%, and the previous value was revised from 1.3% to 3.3%.
Australia's first-quarter salary price index (excluding bonuses) was 0.5% qoq, expected 0.6%, and the previous value was 0.6%. Australia's first-quarter salary price index (excluding bonuses) was 2.1% year-on-year, expected 2.1%, and the previous value was 2.1%.
Australia's Western Pacific 601099 in May, the consumer confidence index of 101.8, the previous value of 102.4. Australia's Western Pacific Consumer Confidence Index for May was -0.6%, compared to the previous value of -0.6%.
Japan's real GDP in the first quarter of the quarter was revised at -0.6%, expected -0.1%, and the initial value of 1.6% was revised to 0.6%. Japan's nominal GDP quarter-on-quarter correction was -0.4%, expected to be 0.1%, and the initial value of 0.3% was revised to 0.1%. Japan's real GDP deflator in the first quarter was revised at -0.2% year-on-year, expected to be 0.3%, and the initial value of 0.1% was revised to 0%. Japan's real GDP quarter-on-quarter correction was -0.2%, expected to be 0%, and the initial value of 0.4% was revised to 0.1%.
Those indices
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed down 0.1% to 31,110.20 points.
South Korea's Seoul Composite Index closed up 0.1%.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.4% at 2717.23 points. Japan's East China Index fell 0.3% to 1800.35 points.
Part of futures
LME aluminum stocks fell 3,925 tons, copper stocks fell 525 tons, nickel stocks fell 810 tons, lead stocks rose 600 tons, tin stocks were flat, and zinc stocks fell 350 tons.
Zheng Shang said that after the research decision, since May 17, Apple Futures 1807 contract, 1810 contract, 1811 contract, 1812 contract, 1901 contract, 1903 contract, 1905 contract day trading account fee is adjusted to 3 yuan / hand. Recently, there are many uncertain factors affecting the Apple market, and price fluctuations are large. Members are required to strengthen investor education and risk prevention work to remind investors to operate cautiously and invest rationally.
Apple futures continued to rise today, and once approached the daily limit in the morning, the highest reported 9226 yuan, a new high since the listing, the turnover of nearly 190 billion yuan. Apple's futures have risen nearly 30% since April 20.
Today's China
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a press conference on the development of China's seed industry. Zeng Yande, Director of the Plantation Management Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that this year's planting intentions showed a structural adjustment. Among them, the area of ​​soybeans, miscellaneous grains and beans increased, and the effective supply increased. It is estimated that the area of ​​soybeans will be 127 million mu, an increase of 10 million mu, and the amount of miscellaneous grains and beans will be 140 million mu, an increase of more than 1 million mu.
The central bank's open market 7-day reverse repurchase bid rate was 2.55%, and the 14-day reverse repo rate was 2.70%, both unchanged from the previous one.
The People's Bank of China today launched a 14-day, $120 billion 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 140 billion yuan. Today, 60 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase expires.
Data show that Beijing's second-hand residential prices in April were -0.1% (previous value -0.2%), compared with -6.9% (previous value -6.8%). Shanghai's second-hand residential prices in April were -0.2% (previous value -0.6%), compared with -2.0% (previous value -1.1%). Guangzhou's second-hand residential prices in April were +0.5% (previous value +0.2%), +1.8% year-on-year (previous value +2.4%). Shenzhen's second-hand residential prices in April were +0.2% (previous value +0.7%), compared with +4.4% (previous value +5.0%). Xi'an second-hand residential price in April was +2.3% (previous value +1.3%), +9.4% (previous value +8.4%). Dandong's second-hand residential prices in April were +1.4% (previous value +0.3%), compared with +4.2% (previous value +3.0%). Urumqi's second-hand residential price in April was +1.4% (previous value +2.1%), +5.0% yoy (previous value +2.0%)
Beijing's new commercial residential sales price index in April was +0.2% (previous value +0.1%), compared with -0.7% (previous value -0.6%). The sales price index of new commercial residential buildings in Shanghai in April was -0.1% (previous value +0.2%), compared with -0.1% (previous value -0.3%). Guangzhou's new commercial residential sales price index in April was -0.1% (+0.2% last month), -0.8% yoy (+0.8% last month). Shenzhen's new commercial residential sales price index in April was +0.1% (previous value -0.1%), compared with -2.2% (previous value -2.3%). The sales price index of new commercial residential buildings in Dandong in April was +2.0% (previous value: 0.4%), up 6.1% year-on-year (previous value was 4.1%). The sales price index of new commercial housing in Sanya in April was +1.9% (previous value: 0.7%), up 5.4% year-on-year (corrected: not 14.9%) (previous value: 2.2%). The sales price index of new commercial residential buildings in Haikou in April was +1.9% (previous value: 2.1%), up 7.2% year-on-year (previous value was 4.8%).
This article was first published on the WeChat public account: Eyes. The content of the article belongs to the author's personal opinion and does not represent the position of Hexun.com. Investors should act accordingly, at their own risk.
(Editor: Zhang Yang HN080)
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