Guide:
I: Analysis of market operation today
Two: Operational reference for specific sections and varieties
Three: main contract support, pressure reference and capital dynamics
(For all support and pressure below, please refer to Part III)
[Analysis of market operation today]
On Friday (November 17), the domestic market closed up and down, the black system fluctuated and divided, the iron ore rose nearly 2%, the coke rose more than 1%, the ferroalloy floated red, the manganese silicon rose more than 2%; the chemical majority Ascending, methanol and glass rose more than 2%, polypropylene rose nearly 2%; non-ferrous metals mostly float green, Shanghai nickel fell nearly 2%; agricultural products 000061, stocks were weak overall, two swells slightly, oils weakened, starch Falling more than 3%.
Today's market impact 156 once again failed after the first line failed, the disk performance after the market entered the market more and more confused, the direction of funds is unknown. However, looking at the general direction now, the negative may be even bigger.
It is still recommended to observe the 156 line pressure in the operation, and the short-term has not broken through the 156.85 new high before the operation is kept empty. Pay attention to the empty order to protect, the new empty order can enter the market after the rebound.
[Specifications for the specific sections and varieties]
ïµBlack section
The black system is shocked and differentiated, the iron ore is up nearly 2%, the coke is over 1%, the iron alloy is red, and the manganese silicon is up 2%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission went to the China Iron and Steel Industry Association to conduct a tripartite meeting to jointly study the working ideas of the steel industry in 2018. In 2018, the focus will be on the following aspects: First, effectively promote the work of steel de-capacity; second, establish a sound market. The rule of law and the elimination of the long-term mechanism of “strip steel†to prevent the resurgence of “strip steelâ€; the third is to urge local governments to do capacity replacement work and strictly prohibit new steel production capacity. China Shenhua 601088, shares announced on the evening of the 16th, the company's first October commercial coal production of 245.1 million tons, an increase of 2.7%; the first 10 months of coal sales of 362.7 million tons, an increase of 12%. India is considering abandoning or downgrading the current 30% medium-grade iron ore export tax. From this week's performance, iron ore rose 0.54%, rebar fell 3.66%, hot coil fell 1.08%, coking coal fell 2.53%, coke rose 0.8%, thermal coal fell 0.75%, manganese silicon rose 5.32%, ferrosilicon rose 1.82%.
1. Coking coal and coke oscillate and accumulate
After several consecutive days of rising, both varieties showed a large drop in performance after pressure, and coking coal made up. On the fund level, after the night plate is lost, the game is re-entered during the day, but the direction is uncertain. The market fell sharply, the funds did not withdraw, indicating that the capital layout is more likely, it is recommended to enter the market after the rebound.
2. Iron ore wide fluctuations, maintaining weakness, avoiding more than one
This round of rebounding iron ore is the strongest, especially after the 470 sharp decline, re-touch back. With the gradual progress of the change of the moon, the weak pattern of iron ore will not end, and it is recommended that the empty orders below 470 be the main one.
3. Thread, hot roll lead, empty order continues to hold
The steel part is the leading product in the commodity sector, and the trend has been lingering and has not turned back. At present, the pattern of weak shocks has not changed, and the short positions are still entering the market. However, it should be noted that due to the downturn in a few days, it is close to the support below, and the empty order is worth reducing.
4. Zheng coal fell into a consolidation pattern after the plunge, and the short position can enter the new high reference.
Due to the lack of stock, the forced position behavior gradually appeared. At present, the 01 contract is not suitable for retail investors. It is recommended to wait and see for funds to be withdrawn and follow the entry. During the 05 contract, there was a rise in funds during the day. At present, the bullish counterattack is not over. It is recommended to refer to the new high-end loss, and the short-selling entry will be carried out. At present, the risk of chasing is relatively high and waiting patiently.
ïµChemical sector
Most of the chemicals rose, methanol and glass rose more than 2%, and polypropylene rose nearly 2%. Yesterday's news that the Shahe glass production line has been discontinued five, some manufacturers have recently plans to increase prices in batches, glass performance is strong. According to Zhuo Chuang Information, the operating rate of China's independent refineries this week fell by 1.44% to 65.50%. This is the first decline in three weeks. The operating rate last week was 66.46%, the highest since December 16, 2016. From this week's performance, glass rose 3.75%, rubber fell 4.08%, asphalt fell 3.15%, plastics fell 2.34%, polypropylene fell 0.79%, PVC fell 6.54%, PTA rose 2.76%, methanol rose 2.39%.
1. The glass is broken and the position is up, and the space is open. Pay attention to the short chance.
2. The rubber empty singles made a big profit, pay attention to the lightening holding near 13200
Today, after hitting the high of 14,300, it quickly went lower, almost falling, and the empty order can continue to hold. However, note that although the current market is volatile, the degree of cooperation in the indicators is not high, and the profit orders are protected. The new short position can enter the market after the rebound.
3. Plastics, PP open low and go high, empty sheet attention gap risk
The two cities continued to fall and fell, near the lower bounds of the consolidation range. There has been no real change in the fundamental contradiction in the near future. The technical pressure on the upper edge of the price consolidation interval, coupled with the market's general decline, the trend is slightly weak. After the recent plunge, there is a need to sort out the demand. Before failing to break new support, it is recommended to keep a short-term idea.
4. Asphalt and methanol test the pressure, and the empty order can be determined by the pressure situation.
5.pta high position plunged, more than one should not be excessively in love, empty orders can enter the market after breaking support
Recently, Pengwei Petrochemical, Huabin Petrochemical, Yadong Petrochemical and Tianjin Petrochemical have concentrated on the restart of 2.64 million tons of equipment, and the increase in US production has led to the continued decline in oil prices. The downstream polyester production and sales have declined, and the market lacks further favorable incentives for PTA. Keep the idea of ​​empty orders below 5600 and avoid falling.
6.pvc opens and breaks, the empty order continues
ïµ agricultural products
The overall agricultural product was weak, the two crops rose slightly, the oils and fats weakened, and the starch fell more than 3%.
The Ministry of Finance informed that since December 20, 2017, the export of joint vitamins is exempted for corn distiller's grains (ex23033000). The weekly export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday (November 16) showed that as of the week of November 9, the US net sales of soybeans in 2017-18 were 110.49 million tons, and soybean exports in 2018-19. Net sales of 72,100 tons. In the week, the US exports of soybeans in 2017-18 were 2.256 million tons. Malaysia, the world's second-largest palm oil producer, is still negotiating palm oil-biofuels with the European Union. The EU has proposed a ban on the use of palm oil-biofuels, and Malaysia hopes to break the deadlock through negotiations.
From this week's performance, the vegetable meal rose 2.66%, soybean meal rose 1.75%, soybeans fell 1.2%, soybean oil fell 2.46%, vegetable oil rose 0.41%, palm oil fell 2.98%, white sugar fell 1.61%, Zheng cotton fell 0.99%, cotton yarn It fell 0.24%, eggs fell 0.47%, corn starch fell 0.29%, and corn fell 0.3%.
1. Corn and starch are falling back and falling off.
At present, the start-up of starch enterprises in North China has not been affected by environmental protection for the time being. There is no large-scale production stoppage and limited production. It is expected that the operating rate of starch enterprises will remain at around 81% this week, and the intensity of environmental protection speculation will decline. The recent increase is too large. It is expected that there will be no more favorable conditions, it is difficult to support continued growth, and more attention will be paid to the reduction. Empty orders can refer to the recent new high-altitude single entry.
2. Soybeans stop falling, try more to enter the market
Soybean is the deepest drop in agricultural products in recent years, and it is also the first to stop falling. Before the market rumors were long, but the subsequent direct plunge, but now gave a better entry opportunity. However, it is noted that the current support of 3600 will only stop the decline, but it does not indicate that the follow-up will continue to rebound. Therefore, in operation, you can pay attention to the support situation, find opportunities to enter the market, remember to chase.
3. Two cockroaches, high pressure oil pressure, empty rallies
After the two consecutive declines, the two sides once again faced the test of important support. If the bean curd can't break through the fall, then the current round of callback ends. At present, the position has been consolidating for nearly a week. At present, the long and short is stuck in the glue. Today, the pressure point is re-struck, and more attention is paid to the departure. The empty order can refer to the pressure.
The three varieties of oils and fats are in a high stage and have the expectation of impact pressure, but the unsuccessful results of many days have caused the bulls to gradually give up the impact. Palm oil is now driving the market to gradually decline. Empty orders can focus on the pressure situation, and the disk is mainly hollow.
4. Eggs resist rebound, pay attention to the layout of empty orders
Eggs hit a new high today, accompanied by a small amount of funds to push the market to break through 4440, mainly concentrated in the late force, and still can not rule out the possibility of the main lure, it is recommended to wait and see, or to enter the market with a new high loss .
5. White sugar pulls back down, re-arranged in the finishing interval, pay attention to the empty single entry
In the short-term, the spot small premium premium futures main contract, recently, Zheng sugar was delayed by the opening of the news in Guangxi, the disk price rebounded, the futures discounts narrowed, the short-term did not have much negative pressure, the latter need to track the actual situation of the opening of Guangxi; Sugar is not affected by the crush of Brazil, and it rebounds. It is expected that the rebound will be limited. After the auction in Guangxi and the State Reserve, there will be no shortage of sugar in the late season. The sugar factory in the north will continue to increase the supply of sugar in the later period. In the long run, China has entered a period of increasing production, and the global sugar market has entered a bear market. Zheng sugar has returned to the weak for a long time, but before the new sugar is listed, the spot or deep drop conditions are not enough. Operationally refer to the 6500 pressure interval to intervene in the empty list, the current decline is a lot, pay attention to the rebound after entering the market, should not kill.
6. Cotton 15300 under pressure, long profit-taking, empty orders continue to hold
On the domestic front, the acquisition of Xinjiang New Cotton has come to an end; the acquisition of South Xinjiang is slow, and the cost of lint is relatively high. On the demand side, the downstream Jinjiuyin 10 entered the final stage, and the imported cotton yarn was competitive. On the international front, US cotton sales remained stable; India's Kupang New Deal continued to ferment. Comprehensive analysis, the domestic and international spreads are at a high level, pressure Zheng cotton; warehouse orders forecast continued to increase, pressure Zheng cotton; the current price difference is at a higher level to limit Zheng cotton's decline. The disk surface is maintained between 15000-15200, and the operation can try more than 15300 to intervene in the empty order.
Base metal block
Non-ferrous metals mostly float green, and Shanghai nickel fell nearly 2%.
China's data this week showed that fixed asset investment and industrial value-added growth slowed, and basic metal performance turned weak. A fire broke out at the main port of the copper miner Freeport McMullen Copper and Gold Company in Papua, Indonesia. This is the port of the world's second largest copper mine, the Grasberg copper mine, which processes copper concentrates and ships them through ships. The cause of the accident is not clear, but the maintenance work at the port has started on Thursday. The Vice Chairman of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Documentary Army: The biggest problem currently plaguing the aluminum industry is that raw material prices have risen too fast; in the first 10 months of this year, the average total cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum reached 15,000 yuan/ton, and in November it rose to 16,000 yuan/ Tons, severely eroded the profit margin of electrolytic aluminum companies. Yu Wei, deputy director of the Raw Materials Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, attended the “2017 China International Aluminum Week†and said that he has done some work with relevant departments from strategic planning, supply-side structural reform, expansion of application and innovation system construction, and achieved certain results. . In the next step, we will continue to promote technological innovation and upgrading of the aluminum industry, expand the promotion and application of new aluminum alloy materials, deepen international cooperation in the aluminum industry, and promote the sustained and steady development of the aluminum industry. Deutsche Bank analyst Liam Fitzpatrick wrote in the report that the market expects the zinc supply gap to persist until 2020, with the zinc price forecast for 2018 up 8% and the 2019 forecast by 11%.
From this week's performance, Shanghai copper fell 1.07%, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.84%, Shanghai zinc fell 1.66%, Shanghai lead fell 3.59%, Shanghai nickel fell 6.33%, and Shanghai tin fell 0.54%.
The precious metal rose slightly. From this week's performance, Shanghai Gold fell 0.25%, and Shanghai Bank fell 0.21%.
1. Precious metals rebound to the upper position, pay attention to more opportunities
After the precious metal fell, it rebounded strongly. At present, the rising pattern is generally formed, and the follow-up can focus on the bargain-hunting intervention.
2. The metal maintains shock consolidation, and the interval can be high altitude
a) Copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, lead plummeted, maintaining empty orders
The speculation of Shanghai Nickel has come to an end. Today's down limit is driving the commodity down, and it is more obvious to other colored varieties. In operation, it can be operated in a vacant interval.
[Main contract support, pressure, operation reference]
[Funding News]
Due to limited space, please pay attention to the exchange group prompt update.
Risk disclosure
COFCO Futures, Channel Business Department Name: Thunder Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0012349
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(Editor: Chen Hao HF072)
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