What are the signals given by Ali and Jingdong?

Increasingly strict policy supervision

The e-commerce days in 2015 are not good, and 2016 will be even more sad. In addition to the bad market conditions, the intensity of policy supervision is getting stricter. E-commerce parks are being carried out in various places. Local industrial and commercial departments are also studying measures to further strengthen supervision, and e-commerce supervision platforms are also building up. There are more and more departments that manage electricity suppliers. At the end of 2014, I wrote that “The era of e-commerce policy dividends is over.” Now it seems that the good days have indeed passed and this winter is sleet.

Ali and Jingdong give signals

Alibaba's financial report in the fourth quarter of 2015 was relatively bright. Its profitability exceeded market expectations. Alibaba achieved 2.95 trillion in sales in 2015. More than 98% of online users in China are Ali users. It is said that 11% of total social consumer retail sales are generated by Ali. The completion of Baba, but these data did not play a role in preventing the decline in its stock price, the current share price is already at the historical low of around 60 US dollars.

Unlike Alibaba, which maintains a different quarterly profit, another giant Jingdong is losing money, but the growth rate is obviously greater than Alibaba. Therefore, the market has a greater degree of preference for JD. However, in the Jingdong third-quarter financial report in 2015, it can be seen that in addition to continuing to maintain losses, its revenue growth is lower than market expectations. Although the slowdown in growth rate is not so obvious, it is frightening from a financial analysis perspective.

Although the performance of the two financial statements is not the same, the information conveyed is exactly the same, that is, the growth rate is slowing down. In Alibaba's financial report, GMV is not a mandatory figure, and revenue must be provided, that is, how much money you make from these GMVs. In Jingdong's financial report, GMV figures after removing pats are their revenue. The speed of growth of the GMV directly reflects the degree of prosperity of the entire market. Therefore, Alibaba's financial report is not bad, but it can be understood as the increase in the degree of monetization in the context of GMV growth slowdown, Jingdong financial report can best reflect the status of the entire market.

In fact, Q4 2015 was the slowest growth quarter for Alibaba. In the four quarters of 2015, the year-on-year growth rate of Alibaba GMV was 40%, 34%, 28%, and 22%, respectively. In 2014, its GMV's The growth rate has never been lower than the 45% year-on-year level. Jingdong’s performance in terms of growth rate is better. The year-on-year growth rates of Jingdong in the first three quarters of 2015 were 99%, 62% and 71%, respectively, due to the fact that the third quarter coincided with Jingdong's tradition of two or three consecutive months. ** It is not surprising that the slight increase in the growth rate in the third quarter is not surprising. The most critical factor is the figure of Jingdong’s fourth-quarter financial report, and the loss can still be sustained. However, if there is a sharp decline in the growth rate, JD’s stock price cannot guarantee 20 US dollars.

The reason why the electricity supplier wants to spend the winter

Internet traffic before 2009 was very cheap. After e-commerce began shopping, the price of traffic rose steadily. If that situation can be maintained for five years, Baidu will not be able to have a total market value of under 100 billion. In fact, since 2014, e-commerce has experienced a tense traffic situation because traffic is unlikely to be inexhaustible. Chinese people still have a ceiling there, and even the second child is released without warning. It has further demonstrated that the population base that sustains high growth in traffic has been shaken.

China currently has about 420 million e-commerce users, which is two to three times that of the United States. This is already a very high penetration rate. User habits have been initially formed. The cost of education for elder and children to develop as e-commerce users is too high, and new users are facing exhaustion. There will never be a scenario where users can get low-cost users with the crazy money they saved several years ago. The door to e-commerce entrepreneurship has actually closed.

Judging from the macroeconomic situation, it does not support the rapid development of e-commerce. Although in 2015, the two 11-day cats released another large satellite of 91.2 billion yuan, the momentum of the overall macroeconomic decline has not changed. PMI continued to contract under several consecutive quarters. Under these backgrounds, it is unrealistic to think that e-commerce is thriving.

Because of this, Alibaba and JD.com and other platforms launched their rural e-commerce plans in 2015 in an attempt to obtain sustained high-growth momentum by opening up new markets. However, from the actual situation, trying to use rural e-commerce to achieve this goal is basically a joke, but is not to dare to engage in the internationalization of the fact that they do not dare to engage in international strategy, put on a gorgeous coat only.

Suning Tesco's performance

What happened to other e-commerce companies outside Ali and JD? See how they have performed in the capital market. Suning Tesco, which was the third-ranked B2C e-commerce provider, made a 180-degree turn in 2015 and was involved in Alibaba's arms. From the old enemy to today's lover. It is not difficult to explain why this is the case.

Between 2012 and 2014, Suning Tesco had two major enemies in front of Suning. One is Jingdong, which continues to erode its offline electronics store, and the other is Tmall, which hinders its implementation of open platform strategy. Suning's two-line battle is mainly due to his inability to defeat Jingdong from the front, and it is the best way to defeat Jingdong by competing with Tmall to implement his own open platform strategy.

From a strategic point of view, this idea is good, but it is problematic to implement. Suning's "PTZ" has a strong traditional thinking in the design logic, and it has many restrictions on businesses. It is proved that there is no Play a proper effect. In the event that the entire market environment is not very good, it is better to resist the online erosion of JD. It is better to join forces with Tmall. Jingdong moves Suning’s core interests, and Tmall is just a natural opponent of Suning. Since the open platform has not been done, it is also good to deal with Jingdong. So the two are married.

In addition to mutual holdings, Tmall and Suning have already cooperated in logistics and after-sales service. Suning also went to Tmall to open a flagship store. This marriage is a negation of everything Suning has done in the past five years. It is also Suning's renunciation of its third largest B2C identity. Suning will no longer have the opportunity to become Wal-Mart in China.

The performance of small partners Amazon, Gome Online, Dangdang

Amazon China's sales have always been a mystery, but it is generally believed that it will be around 300-500 billion yuan, ranking fourth to fifth among China's B2C e-commerce. Some data analysis shows that Amazon’s market share is not only far less than Suning’s, and it’s not as good as Dangdang, Gome Online, and VIP. However, Amazon China's publicly monitorable indicators outside the GMV are among the top, including activity, Baidu Index, etc., Amazon China has played down the total amount of GMV, suspected of intentionally showing weakness.

After the cross-border e-commerce boomed in 2015, Amazon found a chance to show its talents. Amazon’s global purchases increased by 6 times compared to 2014. In 2015, Chinese consumers’ spending in Amazon exceeded. The sum of the past 20 years. All Amazon products purchased and sold are self-operated, which firstly guarantees product quality. Secondly, thanks to Amazon's more than 20 years of logistics and distribution system, the time it takes to ship to China is the shortest.

Amazon China's sales growth is expected to double in 2016, mainly relying on the growth of global share, which is a business that is not affected by the domestic e-commerce market boom. Consumers’ willingness to purchase international goods has been rising continuously. In 2016, Amazon China relied on its global purchasing business to become the third largest B2C player. At present, it seems that the opportunities are still very large.

Gome Online has made great efforts in 2015. It has set a target to attack B2C E-Commerce Top 3 at the beginning of the year. It is unclear how to complete the unfinished business. Its efforts can be seen by people. All the means used by e-commerce in the past few years have been tried by Gome Online in 2015, including price wars and improving the logistics distribution experience. In fact, Gome is a company with outstanding supply chain management capabilities. It can get goods at a lower price. In this respect, only Suning can compare. What is valuable is that Gome Online has not given up despite changes in the market environment and has been tirelessly upwards.

According to Dangdang's financial report, the company's situation is worrying. GMV, which is less than 10 billion yuan a year, sacrifices losses at the expense of revenue. The share price has fallen by 32% year-on-year. However, this does not seem to matter. When Dangdang actually withdrew from the competition of B2C e-commerce in 2014, after the unsuccessful impact on mothers and children and fashion e-commerce, it reverted to the predominant book. The current Dangdang can only be counted as a vertical e-commerce, and its advantages in the field of books still exist. After the privatization is returned to the Mainland and re-introduction of capital, the problem of continuing to live is not significant. However, in addition to books, the e-commerce market has little to do with Dangdang.

Performance of No. 1 shop, Vipshop, Jumei Premium

From the initial self-operation to the subsequent open platform, the No. 1 store went up to the comprehensive platform e-commerce company and passed a winding road. 2015 was a turning point for No. 1 store. Yu Gang’s departure means that No. 1 store will completely abandon the dream of B2C and switch to Wal-Mart’s online fast-moving consumer goods supermarket model. This logic is not difficult to understand, now is no more than the past, in order to get out in the B2C field does not take short cuts is not enough, take shortcuts is also difficult, and continue to go in this direction, is bound to affect the controlling party Wal-Mart brand Reputation, this is the result of Wal-Mart's acquisition of 100% of the equity.

2015 was a year when the vipshop myth was closed. The stock price fell by 50% and returned to the starting point of 2014. When everyone sees the decline, they are making great strides. When everyone is optimistic, they are sluggish, especially if the fundamentals have not changed much. This is the only vipshop. The growth rate of VIP will remain at 50% or more in 2015. There are many imitators in the flash purchase model but it does not have a substantial impact on it. The biggest challenge of VIP in 2015 was actually the rise of cross-border e-commerce. The influx of some low-priced and high-quality products made it impossible for VIP to maintain the high cost-effectiveness of flash-sale products. This is the reason for the decline in its share price. However, in general, since VIP's own user positioning is in the second and third tier markets, domestic brands will have difficulties due to economic downturn in 2016, and VIP will continue to maintain its high growth base. It has been difficult for two years.

In 2015, the most frustrating factor was the combination of excellent products. According to the current stock price calculation, Jumei Youpin lost 60% of its market value in 2015, while the current share price has fallen from the highest price in 2015 by 80%. %, from the highest price in 2014 fell 85%, a company with a market value of 10 billion US dollars, and today the market value is less than 800 million. In less than two years, Jumei Youpin took a ride on the biggest roller coaster in history.

As a vertical beauty e-commerce company, Jumeiyou has a platform dream after its listing and hopes to implement the open platform strategy in the end. However, they also quickly realized that after the third-party merchants came in, the situation was somewhat uncontrollable and chaos began to appear. Therefore, the open platform was cut down decisively, all cosmetic products were changed to self-employed, and infants and cross-border e-commerce were promoted. . It should be said that Jumei Youpin started early in cross-border e-commerce and its strength is still there, but from the perspective of the next quarter's stock price in the fourth quarter, it seems that it will take a while for the market to accept.